Iran’s Nuclear Dilemma: Will the Supreme Leader Change Course in Face of Threat?

The ongoing tensions between Iran and Israel have led to speculation that Iran may need to change its nuclear doctrine if faced with an existential threat. According to Kamal Kharazi, adviser to the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Iran has not yet decided to develop nuclear weapons, but if threatened with an attack on its nuclear facilities or an all-out war, it may have no choice but to do so. General Ahmad Hajtalab, a senior representative of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps responsible for nuclear development issues, also discussed the possibility of revising Iran’s nuclear doctrine in response to a potential Israeli strike.

International experts believe that Iran is nearing the ability to possess nuclear weapons and could become a nuclear power in the near future with the right decision. However, only Ayatollah Ali Khamenei can make that decision. In April 2024, Iran launched an attack on Israel for the first time using unmanned aerial vehicles, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles. While Israel managed to destroy most of the incoming threat without causing significant harm to the Iranians, this event highlighted the potential for a change in Iran’s nuclear doctrine in response to threats to its security.